The declaration of a nationwide State of Emergency and night-time curfew in no less than 15 provinces of Peru appears to have done little to curb the wave of protest unleashed following the ousting and subsequent imprisonment of former President Pedro Castillo. His successor, Dina Boluarte, seems increasingly to be a prisoner of the hard right which effectively controls the Congress.

As we went to press, 19 persons had been killed in clashes with the police, mostly in the regions of Apurímac, Arequipa, Ayacucho, Junín and La Libertad. Large-scale protests had been registered in 13 of Peru’s 24 regions. The National Coordinator of Human Rights has denounced various cases of excessive police violence and the use of live ammunition against protestors. In a statement it called for “unrestricted respect for the right of protest”.

A state of emergency enables the military to be deployed to maintain order. It also involves the suspension of basic civil liberties including free transit and the ability to hold public meetings.

The Ombudsman’s Office (Defensoría del Pueblo) has issued a communiqué demanding “the immediate cessation of acts of violence” and requiring “the armed forces and police to act in conformity with the constitution and the law”.

On 17 December, two ministers, appointed only days earlier – Education Minister Patricia Correa and Culture Minister Jair Pérez – had resigned from their cabinet posts in protest at the scale of violence unleashed by the authorities. In a tweet, Correa stated that “the death of compatriots has no justification whatsoever; state violence cannot be disproportionate and the perpetrator of death.

The protest movement, which had gained increasing momentum last week, culminated in a national strike on 15 December. Initially, this was most evident in the south of the country, especially in Apurímac, Cusco and Arequipa, as well as along the Panamerican Highway both to the north and south of Lima where protestors erected numerous roadblocks. There were also attacks on public buildings, including airports. Eight deaths occurred on 15 December in Ayacucho.

While the trigger for the protest movement was the removal of Castillo from office, it reflected the widespread climate of anger over the role played by Congress in his downfall. Numerous opinion polls have shown the extent of public repudiation of the current legislature – no less than 87% in one of the most recent polls expressed their hostility – even more than those who criticised Castillo for his poor record in office and the allegations of corruption ranged against him.

Faith in Peru’s political class has long been on a downwards slide. Successive surveys by the Latinobarómetro over the last 20 years have placed Peru at the bottom of regional league tables in terms of citizen confidence in democratic institutions. Such scepticism has only been enhanced by egregious instances of corruption at the highest levels of government, Peru’s poor response to the Covid-19 pandemic and, more recently, the surge in inflation which has further undermined most people’s living standards.

Castillo’s fall has thus proved a catalyst for protest. Although the authorities have put the blame on what they have described as vandalism and terrorism, there is no doubt as to the extent of public repudiation, not least in those parts of the country that voted massively for Castillo in last year’s elections. A younger generation has also been conspicuous for its presence on the streets.

Castillo was initially jailed for seven days during which the public prosecution service sought to investigate the claim that he was guilty of rebellion against the constitutional order. On 18 December, Judge Juan Carlos Checkley passed down a sentence of 18 months preventative detention, a ruling that Castillo’s lawyers said they would appeal against on the basis that the former president could not be held guilty of ‘rebellion’ as no armed uprising was involved. The judge placed former prime minister, Aníbal Torres, under house arrest.

Peru’s new president, Dina Boluarte, has been forced by the strength of public opinion to announce the bringing forward of fresh elections to both the presidency and Congress. Initially, she had stated that she would see out Castillo’s mandate until 2026, but swiftly had to abandon this idea by promising elections in April 2024 with a new government taking office in July that year. Then, on 14 December, with demonstrations demanding the immediate closure of Congress, she said that it might be feasible to hold fresh elections in December 2023.

The justification for keeping 2024 as the date for fresh elections was that it would give time for the government, in conjunction with Congress, to pass those reforms of the constitution deemed necessary to improve governability through better political leadership and a better functioning political system. However, considerable doubt remains as to what these reforms would be. For its part, Congress has suggested constitutional amendments whose effect would be to enable the current members to stay in elective office and also the immediate re-election and the restoration of the Senate.

Boluarte finds herself in a weak position in negotiating terms with Congress. No reform to the constitution is possible without the approval of Congress; indeed, any such reform requires two-thirds approval in two successive legislatures or a simple majority and approval in a referendum. Given the climate of opinion, the second of these is an unlikely option. Even the first looks unlikely.

The Congress remains dominated by three far-right parties – Fuerza Popular (led by Keiko Fujimori), Renovación Popular and Avanza País – which, despite some discrepancies, act as a block on major issues. The president of Congress, José Williams, who would succeed Boluarte were she to be removed or to resign, is a member of Avanza País. He is also a retired army general.

International reactions to the ousting of Castillo have been mixed. On the one hand, the presidents of Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Bolivia have so far refused to accept the legitimacy of the way in which Castillo was impeached. On the other hand, the governments of Canada, Uruguay, Ecuador and Costa Rica have expressed support for Boluarte, as have the US administration, the EU and the United Kingdom.

A number of lawyers and politicians, including former president Martín Vizcarra, have claimed that the Congress violated proper procedures in their haste to impeach Castillo and appoint Boluarte. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has also criticised the imprisonment of Castillo without respecting his rights of defence. From within jail, Castillo has maintained his position as rightful president of Peru.

On 16 December, only days after Vizcarra’s pronouncement on the impeachment of Castillo, the public prosecutor was demanding that he be imprisoned for 15 years for his supposed role in construction-related corruption in Moquegua.